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Thread: Analisa Fundamental NZD

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    Analisa Fundamental NZD

    Silakan post analisa fundamental terkait currency NZD disini
    Mohon baca dulu rule sebelum post ==> https://indo.mt5.com/showthread.php?...u-Sebelum-Post)

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    Walaupun NZ baru dilanda gempa, terlihat NZD tidak banyak pengaruh dan berusaha bertahan di atas 0.70

    NZD: Outperformance Vs AUD. Neutral.

    The RBNZ delivered a hawkish cut last week by bringing rates to 1.75% but removing their easing bias and introducing more two way risk for rates in the future. We expect NZD to range trade for now but outperform AUD. NZD remains vulnerable to a hit to risk appetite or higher US bond yields, however we don't see much risk of additional rate cuts without a hit to the growth outlook. On AUD/NZD New Zealand much more plausibly faces rate hikes than Australia which implies rate differentials can move in its favor. FX intervention remains a larger risk than rate cuts but still remains unlikely and would only be combating further strength.

    http://www.forexlive.com/
    di atas adalah prediksi dari Morgan Stanley yang lebih memfavoritkan NZD atas AUD, dan bias NZD netral terhadap USD
    buat saya pribadi, saya masih belum bisa memastikan gerak NZD karena dua hal : The Fed meeting masih belum jelas dan RBNZ masih belum berikan sinyal cut rate atau hold
    disclaimer, tulisan di atas bukan panduan

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    hari ini ada speak dari pejabat RBNZ, namun yang perlu dilihat juga rilis dari NZ yang sebelumnya tertunda karena gempa

    New Zealand's unadjusted annual net gain (more arrivals than departures) of migrants was a record 70,300 in the October 2016 year
    surpasses the previous annual record of 70,000 in the September 2016 year.
    driven by the increase in migrant arrivals
    Also:
    Visitor arrivals numbered 260,200 in October 2016
    A new October record
    The latest month's figure was up 14 percent from October 2015
    In the October 2016 year visitor arrivals hit a record 3.42 million, up 12 percent from October 2015

    http://news.forexlive.com/!/data-cat...wages-20161122
    namun bukan data yang jadi perhatian, sebab sejauh ini juga NZD berusaha di atas 0.70
    disclaimer, tulisan di atas bukan panduan

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    ada berita mengejutkan dari NZ, PM sekarang menyatakan tidak maju lagi di pemilu tahun depan

    http://www.iqplus.info/news/market_n...,39080937.html

    namun, say amergaukan NZD turun murni karena berita ini, sebab mata uang lain juga turun setelah berita Italia
    disclaimer, tulisan di atas bukan panduan

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    Black Frame Talent: Kontes Demotivator pada Forum MT5.com
    Menurut saya berita yang mengejutkan dari selandia baru bukanlah tidak ikutnya perdana menteri John Key di pemilu akhir tahun ini namun keputusan pengunduran dirinya setelah 8 tahun menjabat. Pejabat sementara akan ditunjuk untuk posisi perdana menteri adalah Menteri Keuangan Bill English.
    Pasar merespon positif terlihat dari bond tenor 10 tahun yang ditutup turun 5 basis poin oe angka 3,23%. Pair nzdusd rebound d atas 0.7100 dan saya melihat akan uptrend ke area 0.7200.

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    New Zealand GDT auction price index 3.5% http://news.forexlive.com/!/new-zeal...ex-35-20161206
    Malam ini jam 21.11 dirilis GDT Price Index, berita ini rilisannya tentative jadi kita harus menunggu, dan jangan terkejut dengan gerakan tiba tiba.
    Hasilnya turun 3,5% dari 4,5%.
    Sayang sekali pair nzdusd hanya merespon turun 10 pips ke area 0.7117, market masih terbawa suasana sideways sejak sesi asia, namun trend masih negatif, area pivot point 0.7126 ditembus, sehingga ditambah GDT negatif bisa membawa penutupan di bawah support psikologis 0.7100.

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    New Zealand Bonds Close Flat ahead of Fed`s Last Policy Decision for 2016

    Read more: https://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/2016175
    Selasa ini bonds selandia baru tenor 10 tahun ditutup flat di angka 3.31%. Tenor 7 tahun ditutup flat 2.87% dan tenor 2 tahun juga tidak berubah di angka 2.2%.
    Investor lebih fokus ke area fomc minutes nanti.
    Hari senin kemarin Bill English telah dipilih oleh National Party sebagai Perdana Menteri yang baru walau baru akan resmi ngantor setelah Natal.
    Tidak ada kebijakan baru yang diungkapkan.
    Terlihat pair nzdusd juga bergerak dalam range sempit antar 0.7183- 0.7205.
    Bias hari ini bearish.

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    NZ dollar heads for 2% gain in 2016, belying volatile year http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU161...atile-year.htm
    Hari ini pair nzdusd naik dari titik terendah 0.6825 ke titik tertinggi 0.6963 jam 13.30 waktu wellington.
    Secara keseluruhan di ujung hari 2016 ini nzdusd sudah naik 2%.
    Namun trend tahun depan masih bearish dikarenakan wacana rate cut.
    Kita ambil data lain.
    Swap rate 2 tahun turun dari 2.83% menjadi 2.5% dari tahun lalu.
    Swap rate 10 tahun juga turun dari 3.73% menjadi 3.58% dari tahun lalu.

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    Press release dari rbnz bahwa telah ada kesalahan fatal, yakni rilisan tentang kondisi perbankan new zealand dimuat di website rbnz kamis sore waktu new zealand.
    Akan dilakukan investagasi kenapa informasi sesensitive ini bisa dimuat.
    Waspadai volatilitas mata uang kiwi, mungkin saja bisa berlawanan dengan hasil nfp nanti.

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    Speaking dari gubernur rbnz wheeler di hari rabu, kemungkinan official cash rate akan tetap seimbang di 2 tahun ke depan.
    Ada keseimbangan resiko antara menaikkan atau menurunkan rate.
    Di sisi domestik ada kekhawatiran housing market bubble sehingga rate mungkin turun.
    Di sisi eksternal, naiknya harga komoditas terus mengerek kenaikan nilai nzdusd sehingga nilainya bisa terus melebihi forecast bank sentral.
    Mengikuti speaking pair nzdusd naik dari 0.7140 ke 0.7160. Jika bertahan di atas 0.7150 bisa menguji 0.7200 namun trend masih bearish dengan penekanan nzdusd overbought.

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