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Thread: Analisa Fundamental USD

  1. #11 Collapse Post
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    Black Frame Talent: Kontes Demotivator pada Forum MT5.com
    Dollar menguat tajam dalam pekan pekan terakhir. Saya setuju dengan tinjauan artikel ini, bahwa market sudah meraba kenaikan rate sebesar 25 bps minggu ini. Jadi bicara naik rate sudah gak penting.

    Yang penting adalah statementnya, forecast tahun depan inflasi segimana besar.

    Mungkin saja dollar rally jika rate naikknya 50 bps, namun rasanya mustahil, sebab tidak sesuai dengan minutes sebelumnya, yang bilang kenaikan bertahap.

  2. #12 Collapse Post
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    USD kembali menguat setelah FOMC tadi malam
    sebenarnya kenaikan 25 bp sudah diperhitungkan, yang tidak diperhitungkan adalah proyeksi ini
    perhatikan untuk tahun 2017 :





    http://news.forexlive.com/!/the-dot-...tions-20161214
    disclaimer, tulisan di atas bukan panduan

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    Analisa Fundamental USD
    12/01/2017
    scedule data US malam ini akan merilis beberapa data, mungkin yang akan jadi perhatian adalah data tentang unemployment claims, data ini sendiri adalah indikator jumlah tenaga kerja tidak aktif atau sederhananya pengangguran yang mengisi formulir untuk mendapatkan tunjangan dari pemerintah, data ini diprediksi meningkat sebesar 266k, artinya ada 266 ribu pengangguran yang menisi formulir untuk mendapatkan tunjangan, penambahan jumlah penganguuran merupakan kondisi putaran ekonomi yang cenderung kurang bagus, jika rilis data sesuai dengan prediksi berkemungkinan besar USD akan kembali melemah malam nanti
    sumber data https://www.ifxid.com/forex_calendar
    Spoiler Spoiler:

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    Analisa Fundamental USD
    13/01/2017
    seperti biasa, untuk menganalisa mata uang ini yang pertama saya lakukan dengan melihat scedule rilis data ekonomi untuk US yang rencananya akan dirilis malam nanti waktu indonesia barat
    sumber data https://www.ifxid.com/forex_calendar

    Spoiler Spoiler:

    ada beberapa data yang akan dirilis malam nanti, saya tertarik dengan dua data yaitu PPI dan Retail sales, sederhananya PPI adalah index yang digunakan untuk mengukur besaran biaya produksi disisi produsen, di data PPI diprediksi akan mengalami kenaikan sebesar 0.1% dengan previous sebesar 0.4%, dengan prediksi sebesar 0.1% bisa jadi mengindikasikan biaya produksi menjadi lebih murah dibanding periode sebelumnya, jika rilis data nanti sesuai dengan prediksi ada kecenderungan bahwa USD akan menguat di sesi perdagangan US nanti malam
    lalu kita ke retail sales, data tentang penjualan barang2 ritel, diprediksi meningkat sebesar 0.5%, sepertinya ini akan jadi berita bagus dan mungkin akan berdampak pada penguatan mata uang USD, jadi secara keseluruhan analisa untuk mata uang USD diprediksi akan menguat untuk perdagangan hari ini

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    Black Frame Talent: Kontes Demotivator pada Forum MT5.com
    Dini hari tadi the fed merelease statementnya namun tidak mengatakan hal apapun tentang kenaikan suku bunga di bulan maret, suku bunga semalam juga masih di tahan di range 0.5%-0.75%.
    Ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga di bulan maret turun dari 30% menjadi 18%.
    Nampaknya minggu dollar masih akan bearish. Dengan index dllar yang melorot di bawah 100.

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    Black Frame Talent: Kontes Demotivator pada Forum MT5.com
    Memasuki tahun 2017 dollar melemah tajam, apakah awal phase bearish dari dollar ?
    Sebuah divergensi mengingat 2 tahun ke depan ada proyeksi kenaikan rate 125 bps.
    Mungkin saja hanya shock therapy terhadap presiden baru.
    Ini juga berlawanan dengan kondisi ekonomi yang naik.
    Mata uang lemah bukan jawabab dari proteksionisme.
    Mungkin juga ini hanya imbas ketakutam devaluasi yuan 6 bulan lalu, dimana saat itulah banyak yang mulai melepas dollar.
    Namun melihat ekonomi, tetep optimis dollar masih bull.

  7. #17 Collapse Post
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    ada kemungkinan malah kenaikan interest rate bulan maret dibatalkan, karena kebijakan trump yang masih belum jelas dan seperti seenaknya sendiri

    bahkan tax cut baru bakal dibicarakan di depan kongres paling cepat bulan agustus.

    sepertinya akan ada pelemahan dollar terhadap mata uang lain, terutama safe haven macam JPY

  8. #18 Collapse Post
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    Black Frame Talent: Kontes Demotivator pada Forum MT5.com
    Rabu malam dirilis usm manufacturing pmi bulan februari yang ternyata naik 57,7 mengalahkan nilai sebelumnya 56.0 bahkan ekspektasi hanya naik 56.1.
    Ini merupakan kenaikan tertinggi sejak 2014 dan selama 4 bula berturut turut selalu di atas forecast.
    17 dari 18 industri melaporkan kenaikan.
    Pair usdjpy pasca release naik di atas 114.00 berpotensi terus menguat kamis ini.

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    Black Frame Talent: Kontes Demotivator pada Forum MT5.com
    Janet Yellen speaking di hari jumat menyatakan bahwa era easy money sudah berakhir dan bisa jadi kenaikan rate di fomc minutes tanggal 14-15 maret ini.
    Setelah ragu ragu selama 3 tahun ,rupanya tahun 2017 the fed bisa rally panjang ,mengincar target 3 kenaikan rate.
    Dot plot sudah naik 80% untuk hike di bulan maret.
    Dollar minggu depan dipastikan terus menguat.

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    Thomas Julien, Research Analyst at Natixis, explains that the US employment gains were much weaker than expected in March (+98K versus +180K expected) but most of this slowdown is probably attributable to weather conditions (favorable in February but negative in March) with a sharp slowdown of job gains in weather sensitive sectors (construction for example).

    Key Quotes

    “Meanwhile, the unemployment rate (with a stable participation rate) as well as the underemployment rate dipped to their lowest levels in 10 years. Wages were in line with expectations. In short, nothing to worry about and after all report is a good one!”

    “Nonfarm payrolls rose by 98K in March (after 219K in February, revised downward), much below expectations (consensus: +180K) and ours (Natixis: +190K). The 3 month average in job creations decelerated from +197K to +178K in February. We attribute most of this slowdown to weather conditions that were supportive in February and negative in March (with a snowstorm during the reference period): employment weakened in sectors that are more likely to be sensitive to weather conditions (construction, transports, leisure…).”

    “On the other hand, details of the household survey were very positive: the unemployment rate lost 0.2pts to 4.5% with a stabilization in the participation rate (at 63.0%). This was the lowest level since 2007. The underemployment rate (U6) also decreased, losing 0.3pts to 8.9% (below its long term level).”

    “Faster wages: Average hourly earnings rose in line with expectations and continued to increase at a hefty pace on a yearly basis (2.7%).”

    https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-nfp...s-201704100556
    NFP kemaren ternyata dibawah ekspektasi karena adanya faktor cuaca buruk pada bulan maret. namun secara umum, kondisi unemployment masih rendah, sehingga dollar tetap menguat sekalipun NFP jauh dibawah ekspektasi

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