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Thread: Analisa Fundamental JPY

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    Analisa Fundamental JPY

    Silakan post analisa fundamental terkait currency JPY disini
    Mohon baca dulu rule sebelum post ==> https://indo.mt5.com/showthread.php?...u-Sebelum-Post)

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    Japan Trade balance for October: Y496.2bn (expected Y610bn)

    http://www.forexlive.com/
    sebenarnya tidak ada pengaruh signifikan terhadap JPY dari data di atas, yang pelru diperhatikan : belakangan ini Jepang makin sering surplus
    dengan demikian menunjukkan JPY masih bisa akan dilemahkan , selain untuk mencapai target 2% inflasi
    disclaimer, tulisan di atas bukan panduan

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    selain berita dari gempa, ada satu hal yang cukup menarik pagi ini

    BOJ official says JGB operation was successful

    http://news.forexlive.com/!/boj-offi...ssful-20161122
    seperti diketahui, USDJPY sempat ke 102 beberapa waktu lalu dan JGB juga minus yieldnya
    bersamaan dengan JGB yang yieldnya kembali positif, maka yen juga melemah
    dari sini, kita bisa ambil kesimpulan ada korelasi JGB-yen selain Nikkei -yen
    disclaimer, tulisan di atas bukan panduan

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    Speculators Net Short Yen in the Futures Market for the First Time in a Yearhttps://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/speculators-net-short-yen-in-the-futures-market-for-the-first-time-in-a-year-201612050602
    Pada bulan november pair usdjpy naik sebesar 8,5% namun di akhir bulan tepatnya tanggal 28 november terjadi penambahan kontrak jual sebesar 12,100 sehingga kini total kontrak jual 72,400.
    Menurut CFTC setelah jumlah buy usdjpy mencapai titik tertinggi di bulan oktober sebanyak 102.000 telah terjadi total penambahan 40.000 kontrak jual.
    Bagusnya nilai nfp tidak sanggup mempertahankan usdjpy di atas 114.00.
    Jadi yang namanya COT perlu juga dibaca, kini proyeksi saya usdjpy balik ke area 110 yen.

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    Hari ini Bank Of Japan menyelenggarakan minutes dimana suku bunga jangka pendek tetap minus 0.1%, bond 10 tahun rate di sekitar 0% dan stimulus tetap dilaksanakan tahun depan dengan besaran tetap 80 triliun yen.
    Ada tambahan bahwa ekonomi jepang sudah tumbuh moderat.
    Pair usdjpy kembali naik di atas area 117.00 dan sekarang di area 117.25 potensi bullish ke area 118.00.

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    Boj gubernur kuroda baru saja berbicara di Keidanren business lobby. Dia berhasil mentahkan anggap para akademisi bahwa target inflasi 2% terlalu ambisius bagi jepang yang sekian lama berada dalam kondisi deflasi.
    Dari minutes terlihat bahwa komposisi 1 orang member ingin stimulus dikurangi namun 9 member, tidak ingin dikurangi, sebab bisa dianggap tapering, signal salah buat market.
    Posisi usdjpy dengan ini buy on dips dengan support kuat di 116.00.

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    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...weekends-early Japan Wants Its Overworked Citizens to Start Weekends Early
    Government wants 3pm clock-off on last Friday of each month
    Tahun 2017 akan menjadi resolusi baru bagi para pekerja Jepang. Jam kerja di hari jumat akan dibatasi hanya sampai jam 3 sore.
    Hal ini dilakukan untuk menekan angka bunuh diri akibat tekanan kerja, dimana jepang ini peringkat kedua setelah Korea Selatan.

    Hal ini diberi judul "Premium Friday" akan efektif mulai tanggal 24 February 2017.
    Apa untungnya ? selain menekan angka bunuh diri premium friday akan mendorong konsumsi sampai 124 billion yen ($1.6 billion) setiap jumatnya.
    tentu ini kenaikan tinggi sehingga bisa menimbulkan demand tinggi terhadap mata uang yen.

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    Jepang adalah negara dengan kategori ekspor berat, sehingga mahalnya mata uang akan menurunkan ekonomi.
    Pada dua kuartal pertama tahun lalu, BOJ ketar ketir dengan pair usdjpy berkutat di area 100.
    Abenominc yang sudah 6 tahun berjalan ternyata hanya menaikkan ekonomi sebesar 2,1%.
    Namun, untunglah kemenangan trump mengerek usdjpy 800 pips hanya 1 bulan.
    Abenomics mash berlanjut di 2017 sejalan dengan trump, maka kebijakan kuroda bisa menaikkan usdjpy ke 126.00
    Highest mei 2002.

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    Perdana Menteri Jepang shinzo abe mengatakan tidak akan ada intervensi di pasar forex selama kepemimpinannya, namun bisa saja jika keadaan darurat.
    Nilai penting mesti didiskuskan antra menteri keuangan jepang dengan us treasury secretary.
    Nampak pair usdjpy drop dari 113.15 ke 1?2.85 namun bias dengan ini bullish, panic selling terjadi.

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    Pagi ini bank of japan melakukan operasi di bond market.
    Mereka melakukan 3 penawaran.
    1. 1 triliun yen untuk t bills expired tanggal 7 februari.
    2. 70 milyar yen untuk jgb maturity kurang dari 1 tahun
    3. 450 milyar yen untuk jgb tenor 5-10 tahun.

    Yen sempat menguat,namun ke depan diperkirakan melemah tajam proyeksi usdjpy menguji 114.00.

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