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Thread: ۩ ۞ ۩ Chart Patterns ۩ ۞ ۩

  1. #171
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    Bearish Pattern

    Downside Break Chart Pattern


    Implication
    A Downside Breakout is considered a bearish signal, marking a breakout from a trading range to start a new downtrend.

    Description
    A Downside Breakout occurs when prices break out through the bottom of a trading range and descend quickly as a new downtrend forms. It appears that the market is being flooded with sell orders. There are usually gaps throughout this activity. This pattern can last for a few days to a few weeks.



    Criteria that Supports


    Duration of Trading Range
    The duration of the trading range for which the breakout occurred can provide an indication of the strength of the breakout. The longer the duration of the trading range the more significant the breakout.

    Narrowness of Trading Range
    The "narrowness" of the trading range can also be used to gauge the breakout. To determine the narrowness of the trading range compare the upper boundary with the lower boundary of the trading range. If the trading range has a small difference between the upper and lower boundary (making it narrow) then the breakout is considered stronger and more reliable.

    Support and Resistance
    Look for a region of support or resistance. A region of price consolidation or a strong Support and Resistance Line at or around the target price is a strong indicator that the price will move to that point.

    Moving Average Trend
    Look at the direction of the Moving Average Trend. For short duration patterns use a 50 day Moving Average, for longer patterns use a 200 day Moving Average. The Moving Average should change direction during the duration of the pattern and should head in the direction indicated by the pattern.

    Volume
    A strong volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is a strong indicator in support of the potential for this pattern. The volume spike should be significantly above the average of the volume for the duration of the pattern. In addition, the volume during the duration of the pattern should be declining on average.

    Criteria that Refutes

    Duration of Trading Range
    The duration of the trading range for which the breakout occurred can provide an indication of the strength of the breakout. The shorter the duration of the trading range the less significant the breakout.

    Narrowness of Trading Range
    The "narrowness" of the trading range can also be used to gauge the breakout. To determine the narrowness of the trading range compare the upper boundary with the lower boundary of the trading range. If the trading range has a large difference between the upper and lower boundary (making it wide) then the breakout is considered weaker and less reliable.

    No Volume Spike on Confirmation
    The lack of a volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is an indication that this pattern may not be reliable. In addition, if the volume has remained constant, or was increasing, over the duration of the pattern, then this pattern should be considered less reliable.

    Moving Average Trend
    Look at the direction of the Moving Average Trend. For short duration patterns use a 50 day Moving Average, for longer patterns use a 200 day Moving Average. A Moving Average that is trending in the opposite direction to that indicated by the pattern is an indication that this pattern is less reliable.
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  3. #172
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    Bearish Pattern

    Rounded Top Chart Pattern



    Implication
    A Rounded Top is considered a bearish signal, indicating a possible reversal of the current uptrend to a new downtrend.

    Description
    A Rounded Top is dome-shaped, and is sometimes referred to as an inverted bowl or a saucer top. The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks down below its moving average.

    Important Characteristics
    Following are important characteristic to look for in a Rounded Top.

    Shape
    Robert D. Edwards and John Magee describe the rounded top as being a "gradual, progressive, and fairly symmetrical change in the trend direction, produced by a gradual shift in the balance between buying and selling". For a rounded top, the price can fluctuate or be linear. However, the overall curve should be smooth and regular, without obvious spikes.

    Volume
    Volume can fluctuate, however volume generally appears to be concave, and follows the inverse of the price pattern. Therefore, as the price begins to ascend, volume tends to decrease. Once the top of the price pattern starts its downward turn, volume tends to increase.

    As Martin J. Pring writes in his book, Technical Analysis Explained, "The tip-off to the bearish implication of the rounded top is the fact that volume shrinks as prices reach their highest levels and then expand as they fall."

    Duration of the Rounded Top
    Rounded Tops typically occur over a period of about 3 weeks, but can also be observed over several years.

    Trading Considerations
    Duration of the Pattern
    The duration of the pattern indicates the significance of the price movement. Clifford Pistolese writes, "a rounding top that is completed in a couple of months will usually be less significant than one that takes a much longer time to complete."

    Target Price
    After a downside breakout, technical analysts may use the starting price at the left side of the dome to determine where the price may head. However, you will want to monitor the stock with interest. Price may end higher than it was at the beginning of the pattern. Furthermore, there is the potential for the price to rise after the rounded top completes. Thomas N. Bulkowski writes that, "most of the time prices rise after a rounding top completes".

    Criteria that Supports

    Volume
    Volume should diminish as the pattern forms.

    Moving Average
    Moving averages help to determine whether the rounded top has the potential to descend. For a rounded top, the price should cross below the moving average when it begins to descend. When this crossover occurs, the pattern is "confirmed".

    There is an abundance of literature about moving averages if you are interested in understanding how they operate. In simple terms, the moving average can be used to detect a possible pattern success or failure. Typically, a moving average represents the closing price of a stock over a set number of days, and can be used to anticipate the general direction of a stock. Depending on the type of stock, investors may decide to use a long, medium or short term moving average. For example, short duration patterns generally use a 50-day moving average, and longer patterns generally use a 200-day moving average.

    Trendlines
    Price trendlines provide investors with a way to monitor and validate a rounded top. To track a potential rounded top, technical analysts draw a line just beneath the lower limits of the price uptrend. The trendline is straight, regardless of the fluctuations of the price. When the price drops beneath the line, there is indication that the uptrend has ended.

    When the downtrend begins, technical analysts draw another line just above the upper limits of the price pattern, and continue down towards the start price of the pattern formation. When the price rises above the line, there is an indication that the new downtrend has ended.

    Criteria that Refutes

    Upside Breakouts
    A promising-looking rounded shape with an breakout above the moving average, instead of below, may not establish or maintain a new downtrend.

    Underlying Behavior
    A Rounded Top forms as investor sentiment shifts gradually from bullishness to bearishness. As the sentiment turns up toward the top, there is a drop off in trading volume due to the indecisiveness in the market. There is a period of consolidation at the top as trading bounces within a certain range, then finally there is a gradual downturn marking the shift to bearishness. As investors become more decisive about the bearishness, there is an increase in trading volume.
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  4. #173
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    Bearish Pattern

    Top Triangle Chart Pattern


    Implication
    A Top Triangle/Wedge is considered a bearish signal, indicating a possible reversal of the current uptrend to a new downtrend.

    Description
    A Top Triangle/Wedge consists of a group of patterns which have the same general shape as Symmetrical Triangles, Wedges, Ascending Triangles and Descending Triangles. The difference is that the formations grouped together as this pattern are reversal and not continuation patterns. These patterns have two converging trendlines. The pattern will display two highs touching the upper trendline and two lows touching the lower trendline.

    This pattern is confirmed when the price breaks downward out of the Triangle/Wedge formation to close below the lower trendline.


    Volume is an important factor to consider. Typically, volume follows a reliable pattern: volume should diminish as the price swings back and forth between an increasingly narrow range of highs and lows. However, when the breakout occurs, there should be a noticeable increase in volume. If this volume picture is not clear, investors should be cautious about decisions based on this Triangle/Wedge.

    Important Characteristics

    Following are important characteristics for this pattern.

    Occurrence of a Breakout
    Technical analysts pay close attention to how long the pattern takes to develop to its apex. The general rule is that prices should break out - clearly penetrate the lower trendline - somewhere between three-quarters and two-thirds of the horizontal width of the formation. The break out, in other words, should occur well before the pattern reaches the apex of the Triangle/Wedge. The closer the breakout occurs to the apex the less reliable the formation.

    Duration of the Triangle/Wedge
    This pattern is a relatively short-term. While long-term Triangles/Wedges do form, the most reliable patterns take between one and three months to form.

    Volume
    Investors should see volume decreasing as the pattern progresses toward the apex of the Triangle/Wedge. At breakout, however, there should be a noticeable increase in volume.

    Trading Considerations

    Duration of the Pattern
    Consider the duration of the pattern and its relationship to your trading time horizons. The duration of the pattern is considered to be an indicator of the duration of the influence of this pattern. The longer the pattern the longer it will take for the price to reach its target. The shorter the pattern the sooner the price move. If you are considering a short-term trading opportunity, look for a pattern with a short duration. If you are considering a longer-term trading opportunity, look for a pattern with a longer duration.

    Target Price
    The target price provides an important indication about the potential price move that this pattern indicates. Consider whether the target price for this pattern is sufficient to provide adequate returns after your costs (such as commissions) have been taken into account. A good rule of thumb is that the target price must indicate a potential return of greater than 5% before a pattern should be considered useful. However you must consider the current price and the volume of shares you intend to trade. Also, check that the target price has not already been achieved.

    Inbound Trend
    The inbound trend is an important characteristic of the pattern. A shallow inbound trend may indicate a period of consolidation before the price move indicated by the pattern begins. Look for an inbound trend that is longer than the duration of the pattern. A good rule of thumb is that the inbound trend should be at least two times the duration of the pattern.

    Criteria that Supports

    Support and Resistance
    Look for a region of support or resistance around the target price. A region of price consolidation or a strong Support and Resistance Line at or around the target price is a strong indicator that the price will move to that point.

    Moving Average
    Watch for the 200 day moving average to flatten. When prices cross below the 200 day moving average (usually about two-thirds to three-quarters of the way through the pattern), the pattern is considered more reliable.

    Volume
    A strong volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is a strong indicator in support of the potential for this pattern. The volume spike should be significantly above the average of the volume for the duration of the pattern. In addition, the volume during the duration of the pattern should be declining on average.

    Criteria that Refutes

    No Volume Spike on Breakout
    The lack of a volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is an indication that this pattern may not be reliable. In addition, if the volume has remained constant, or was increasing, over the duration of the pattern, then this pattern should be considered less reliable.

    Short Inbound Trend
    An inbound trend that is significantly shorter than the pattern duration is an indication that this pattern should be considered less reliable.

    Underlying Behavior

    This pattern is a result of converging trendlines of support and resistance which give this pattern its distinctive shape. This occurs because the trading action gets tighter and tighter until the market breaks out with great force. Buyers and sellers find themselves in a period where they are not sure where the market is headed. Their uncertainty is marked by their actions of buying and selling sooner, making the range of the price movements increasingly tight. As the range between the peaks and troughs marking the progression of price narrows, the trendlines meet at the "apex,".

    The narrowing of the trading action and the decreasing volume of trade reflect the indecision in the market. Finally consensus or decision in the market is reached and this is reflected as the price breaks out of the Triangle/Wedge. A spike in volume on this breakout date reflects stronger consensus that the stock should move in that direction.
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  5. #174
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    Bearish Pattern

    Triple Top Chart Pattern


    Introduction
    A triple top is considered to be a variation of the head and shoulders top. Often the only thing that differentiates a triple top from a head and shoulders top is the fact that the three peaks that make up the triple top are more or less at the same level. The head and shoulders top displays a higher peak - the "head" - between the two shoulders.

    According to experts including Murphy, making a distinction between these two patterns is largely academic because they both imply the same thing.They are both "reversal" patterns of an upward trend in a stock. The triple top marks an uptrend in the process of becoming a downtrend.

    What does a triple top look like?
    As shown below, the triple top pattern is comprised of three sharp peaks, all at the same level. A triple top occurs when prices are in an uptrend. Prices rise to a resistance level, retreat, return to the resistance level again, retreat, and finally, return to that resistance level for a third time before declining. In a classic triple top, the decline following the third peak marks the beginning of a downtrend.


    While the three peaks should be sharp and distinct, the lows of the pattern can appear as rounded valleys. The pattern is complete when prices decline below the lowest low in the formation. The lowest low is also called the "confirmation point."

    Bulkowski advises that this pattern can have many variations. He continues, however, to advise that an investor should ensure that the three peaks are well separated and not part of a congestion pattern. "Each top should be part of its own minor high, a distinct peak that towers about the surrounding price landscape."

    Elaine Yager, Director of Technical Analysis at Investec Ernst and Company in New York and a member of Recognia's Board of Advisors suggests they should be noticeably distinct peaks and they do not have to be precisely at the same level.

    Why is this pattern important?
    Like the head and shoulders top which it resembles so closely, the triple top is considered by experts to be a reliable pattern. According to Schabacker, there is a good explanation for placing reliance on this pattern. The pattern illustrates three successive attempts to break through a resistance level. Price cannot move above a certain point, despite three tries. "Each failure adds weight to the indications of reversal," explains Schabacker.

    Is volume important in a triple top?
    Generally, volume in a triple top tends to be downward as the pattern forms. Murphy advises that volume should be lighter on each rally peak.Volume then picks up as prices fall under the confirmation point and break into the new downward trend.

    Both Bulkowski and Schabacker place less significance on the downward progression of volume. While both agree that investors should see relatively high volume on the first peak, they also agree that volume on the other peaks can be confused and irregular. Volume should be higher on the peaks than at the lows. Bulkowski's statistics suggest that an investor should see a volume burst at the time of breakout and during the few days following the decline in price below the confirmation point.

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  6. #175
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    Bearish Pattern

    lanjutan atas
    karena karakter g cukup

    What are the details that I should pay attention to in the triple top?

    1. Duration of the Pattern
    This pattern can take upwards of several months to form. According to Bulkowski, average formation time is approximately four months. In addition, experts, including Schabacker and Murphy, agree that the longer the pattern takes to form, the greater the significance of the price move once breakout occurs. The three highs do not need to be equally spaced from one another.

    2. Need for an Uptrend
    The triple top is a reversal pattern marking the transition period between an uptrend and a downtrend in prices. It is crucial to the existence of this pattern that it begin with an uptrend of stock prices.

    3. Decisive Breakout
    Investors are advised to wait for prices to make a definitive break below the confirmation point of a triple top pattern. If prices do not fall below the confirmation point after the third peak is reached, the pattern is not a triple top. In a bull market, for example, it is common to see three highs which look like the beginning of a well-formed triple top. If prices, however, do not fall below the confirmation point, they can just as easily pull away from the highs established by the three peaks and then continue on in the upward trend.

    4. Volume
    As discussed, it is typical to see volume diminish as the pattern progresses. This should change, however, when breakout occurs. A valid breakout should be accompanied by a burst in volume. Certain experts are less concerned by seeing a steadily diminishing trend in volume as the pattern progresses through its three highs. Schabacker comments that the volume picture can often be confused and irregular.7 All agree, however, that an investor will want to see a definite increase in volume at the time of the break through the confirmation point.

    5. Rally after Breakout
    Yager notes that a high percentage of triple tops have rallies back to the point of the breakdown more often than not.

    How can I trade this pattern?

    Begin by calculating the target price - the minimum expected price move. The triple top is measured in a way similar to that for the head and shoulders top.

    Calculate the height of the pattern by subtracting the lowest low from the highest high in the formation. Then, subtract the height from the lowest low. In other words, an investor can expect the price to move downwards at least the distance from the breakout point less the height of the pattern.

    For example, assume the lowest low of the triple top is 170 and the highest high is 220. The height of the pattern equals 50 (220 - 170 = 50). The minimum target price is 120 (170 - 50 = 120).

    Bulkowski calculates that the measure rule is not completely reliable for the triple top, estimating that nearly 50% of all triple tops will fall short of their minimum target price.

    Edwards and Magee warn that true triple tops are few and far between. So, it makes sense to be cautious when assessing what might initially look like a developing triple top.

    According to Edwards and Magee, an investor should never "jump the gun" with a triple top.If the triple top is not completed by breaking through the confirmation point, experts advise caution. The pattern can fail to complete and just as easily recommence an upwards trend. However, Edwards and Magee also explain that if the pattern has been confirmed by a valid breakout, then the pattern seldom fails. "Stick to the breakout rule," they advise, "and you will be safe."

    Rallies are common with triple tops. An investor can trade that return move to his or her advantage. According to Bulkowski, if an investor misses the breakout, there's still time to place or add to a short position when prices resume their rally towards the former breakdown level. In this case it would have been 170.

    Are there variations in the pattern that I should know about?

    1. Hybrid Variation
    There is a hybrid variation that appears to be a cross between a double and triple top. The middle peak is slightly lower than the left and right peaks. This is still a valid reversal pattern.

    2. Fourth Peak
    It is possible for the pattern to display a fourth peak before reversal occurs.



    examples



    Example
    Last edited by ijak; 09-04-2010 at 02:24 AM.
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  7. #176
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    kalau mau belajar pattern ini site2 yang bagus
    http://www.trending123.com/patterns/
    http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html

    Megaphone TOP


    Implication
    A Megaphone Top also known as a Broadening Top is considered a bearish signal, indicating that the current uptrend may reverse to form a new downtrend.

    Description
    A Megaphone Top is a relatively rare formation and is also known as a Broadening Top. Its shape is opposite to that of a Symmetrical Triangle. The pattern develops after a strong advance in a stock price and can last several weeks or even a few months.

    A Megaphone Top is formed because the stock makes a series of higher highs and lower lows. The Megaphone Top usually consists of three ascending peaks and two descending troughs. The signal that the pattern is complete occurs when prices fall below the lower low.

    Volume in the Megaphone Top usually peaks along with prices. It is usual to see trading volumes increase or remain high during the formation of this pattern. The eventual breakout and reversal can be difficult to identify at the time of its occurrence because volume does not appear unusual.

    Trading Considerations

    Target Price
    The target price provides an important indication about the potential price move that this pattern indicates. Consider whether the target price for this pattern is sufficient to provide adequate returns after your costs (such as commissions) have been taken into account. A good rule of thumb is that the target price must indicate a potential return of greater than 5% before a pattern should be considered useful, however you must consider the current price and the volume of shares you intend to trade.

    Criteria that Supports

    Volume
    Volume in the Megaphone Top usually peaks along with prices. A strong volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is a strong indicator in support of the potential for this pattern.

    Underlying Behavior
    The creation of the pattern reflects a period of time when bulls and bears are battling to gain control of the stock. The pattern occurs after the bulls have been charging and driving the stock price appreciably higher. During the formation of the Megaphone Top, however, bears are exerting increasing influence on the stock and causing it to set a series of lower lows. The increasing volatility eventually creates a sense of uncertainty, leads to profit-taking, and deters some of the bulls from making any further commitments.
    The bears eventually triumph.



    Topping Pattern

    Last edited by ijak; 09-04-2010 at 06:13 AM.
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  8. #177
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    Quote Originally Posted by ijak View Post
    kalau mau belajar pattern ini site2 yang bagus
    http://www.trending123.com/patterns/
    http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html

    Megaphone TOP


    Implication
    A Megaphone Top also known as a Broadening Top is considered a bearish signal, indicating that the current uptrend may reverse to form a new downtrend.

    Description
    A Megaphone Top is a relatively rare formation and is also known as a Broadening Top. Its shape is opposite to that of a Symmetrical Triangle. The pattern develops after a strong advance in a stock price and can last several weeks or even a few months.

    A Megaphone Top is formed because the stock makes a series of higher highs and lower lows. The Megaphone Top usually consists of three ascending peaks and two descending troughs. The signal that the pattern is complete occurs when prices fall below the lower low.

    Volume in the Megaphone Top usually peaks along with prices. It is usual to see trading volumes increase or remain high during the formation of this pattern. The eventual breakout and reversal can be difficult to identify at the time of its occurrence because volume does not appear unusual.

    Trading Considerations

    Target Price
    The target price provides an important indication about the potential price move that this pattern indicates. Consider whether the target price for this pattern is sufficient to provide adequate returns after your costs (such as commissions) have been taken into account. A good rule of thumb is that the target price must indicate a potential return of greater than 5% before a pattern should be considered useful, however you must consider the current price and the volume of shares you intend to trade.

    Criteria that Supports

    Volume
    Volume in the Megaphone Top usually peaks along with prices. A strong volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is a strong indicator in support of the potential for this pattern.

    Underlying Behavior
    The creation of the pattern reflects a period of time when bulls and bears are battling to gain control of the stock. The pattern occurs after the bulls have been charging and driving the stock price appreciably higher. During the formation of the Megaphone Top, however, bears are exerting increasing influence on the stock and causing it to set a series of lower lows. The increasing volatility eventually creates a sense of uncertainty, leads to profit-taking, and deters some of the bulls from making any further commitments.
    The bears eventually triumph.



    Topping Pattern
    Om Ijak, kalo website yang bahas pattern candle tapi bahasa Indonesia ada ngga Om?
    Please sharing juga kalo ada? Ngarep MODE ON

  10. #179
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    Quote Originally Posted by WDMC View Post
    Om Ijak, kalo website yang bahas pattern candle tapi bahasa Indonesia ada ngga Om?
    Please sharing juga kalo ada? Ngarep MODE ON
    wah klo yang bahas mah ada disini http://indo.mt5.com/showthread.php?4...-%DB%A9/page18
    tp klo yang bahasa indonesia saya belom pernah nemu bos..
    mungkin temen2 ada source??
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  12. #180
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    ane demen chart pattern.. melatih kesabaran and disiplin trading.. jd bener2 cari momentum yg pas..
    wlpn tetep tdk bisa meninggalkan factor resiko tp paling tidak kita trade tidak sembarangan.. lebih cermat teliti and sabar dalam mengambil kesimpulan... coz aku yakin kesabaran akan ada imbalannya, kan orang sabar disayang Tuhan..

    hehehehe.. :ngacir

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