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Thread: Analisa Fundamental AUD

  1. #11
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    The Australian Dollar was unmoved against its US counterpart Wednesday despite ongoing gains for Chinese consumer prices, with global geopolitical risk running markets’ table.



    The country’s official March Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% on the year, slightly below the 1% gain expected but above February’s 0.8% increase. On the month prices fell 0.3% as crucial food prices slipped 1.5%.



    Producer prices for the same month rose 7.6%, just above the 7.5 rise predicted. This series is at six-year highs.



    Markets had been looking for a 1% on-month gain after February’s 0.8% rise, and an annualized 7.5% rise.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/austr...021700936.html
    sekalipun data dari china tergolong bagus, hal ini tidak terllau berpengaruh positif terhadap AUD, karena masih adanya kecemasan pasar mengenai kondisi geopolitik, terutama di timur tengah (Suriah) dan asia timur (korea utara)

    akan tetapi, data ini cukup mampu menahan AUD dari kejatuhan yang lebih dalam lagi terhadap safe haven currency seperti USD

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    The TD Securities Melbourne Institute pagi ini merilis Consumer Inflation Index Australia bulan april yang naik 0.5% mengikuti kenaikan 0.1% di bulan maret.
    Year on Year April ini naik 2,6% yang bulan kemarin naik 2,2%.
    Kenaikan skala bulanan dan tahunan menaikkan pair audusd ke 0.7490 dari 0.7475 dan masih akan uptrend mengingat kenaikan cepat inflasi di quartal kedua awal ini, sehingga diharapkan RBA tetap menjaga rate.
    Musim panas lalu RBA memangkas suku bunga setelah inflasi mencetak rekor terendah dalam 17 tahun.

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    Kamis, 18 Mei 2017
    =======================
    Australia akan merilis data labor, saya cenderung memperhatikan data employment change.
    Periode sebelumnya, data employment change meningkat 60.9K, dengan meningkatnya data employment change, memberikan padangan kepada pelaku pasar kondisi ekonomi Australia membaik.
    dan Pekan ini di perkirakan data employment change rilis dikisaran 5.6K. artinya ada penurunan dari periode sebelumnya sebesar 55.3K. dan jika rilis sesuai perkiraan, akan memberikan padangan kepada pelaku pasar bahwa kondisi ekonomi Australia memburuk kembali, dan cenderung mata uang AUD akan melemah (Bearish AUDUSD).

    peluang bearish AUDUSD
    ====================
    jika AUDUSD membreakout support line 0.742142. AUDUSD cenderung akan bearish menuju 0.738724.

    Sumber : http://www.tradingeconomics.com/aust...loyment-change

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    Quote Originally Posted by NovanFR View Post
    Kamis, 18 Mei 2017
    =======================
    Australia akan merilis data labor, saya cenderung memperhatikan data employment change.
    Periode sebelumnya, data employment change meningkat 60.9K, dengan meningkatnya data employment change, memberikan padangan kepada pelaku pasar kondisi ekonomi Australia membaik.
    dan Pekan ini di perkirakan data employment change rilis dikisaran 5.6K. artinya ada penurunan dari periode sebelumnya sebesar 55.3K. dan jika rilis sesuai perkiraan, akan memberikan padangan kepada pelaku pasar bahwa kondisi ekonomi Australia memburuk kembali, dan cenderung mata uang AUD akan melemah (Bearish AUDUSD).

    peluang bearish AUDUSD
    ====================
    jika AUDUSD membreakout support line 0.742142. AUDUSD cenderung akan bearish menuju 0.738724.

    Sumber : http://www.tradingeconomics.com/aust...loyment-change
    Kalau menurut saya data unployment cange mengalami kenaikan artinya audusd akan menguat terhadap dolar. Jadi besar kemungkinan audusd akan melanjutkan bullish nya. Baik dilihat dari trade balance,inflasi,gdp nya yang masih bagus data nya saat ini. Jadi bullish masih akan tetap dominan untuk audusd nya.

    Sekian analisa dari saya. Mohon maaf kalau ada salah-salah kata.

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    Analisa Fundamental AUD
    30-05-2017
    ----------------------------------
    Pukul 8.30 AM akan rilis data Australia Bulding Permits. Data ini cenderung penting bagi ekonomi suatu negara.
    Dikarenakan data ini merupakan data mengenai izin mendirikan bangunan atau disebut dengan IMB.
    ketika seseorang memiliki IMB artinya kemampuan ekonominya bagus, bagusnya keadaan ekonomi masyarakat akan berdampak bagusnya ekonomi suatu negara tersebut.
    Diperkirakan data buliding akan rilis dikisaran angka 4%. dan jika rilis sesuai perkiraan, artinya keadaan ekonomi di Australia sedang bagus, dan cenderung akan membuat mata uang AUD cenderung akan menguat.

    sumber : https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/building-permits

  8. #16
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    Speculators were active in the currency futures in the CFTC reporting week ending July 25. In particular, speculative sentiment continues to be drawn to the Canadian and Australian dollars.

    Almost 10.5k contracts were added the to gross long Canadian dollar futures position, which lifted it to 70.4k contracts. It was near 29k contracts at the end of June. Speculators raised their gross long Australian dollar position to 80.8k contracts, adding 11.7k in the most recent period. It was almost 50k at the end of last month.

    http://www.marctomarket.com/2017/07/...pour-into.html
    spekulator atau institusi besar terlihat menambahkan posisi buy terhadap AUD dan CAD, dilihat dari data Commitment of traders yang dikeluarkan oleh CTFC. hal ini menunjukkan keyakinan investor terhadap AUD dan CAD.

    jika melihat hal ini, kemungkinan AUD dan CAD masih bisa bergerak lebih tinggi lagi

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  10. #17
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    https://www.efxnews.com/story/36665/...10-major-banks

    Overall, the RBA is universally expected to stay on hold with neutral statement, but there is some risk that the central bank could attempt to talk-down the AUD by using a stronger language on the currency at the commentary statement.

    Strategy-wise, such a scenario could lead to some liquidation/profit-taking on newly established longs before buyers on dips start to emerge and that should eventually feed into the price action of any possible dips (shallow vs sustained).
    secara umum, institusi keuangan besar memperkirakan tidak akan ada perubahan pada tingkat suku bunga dari RBA. namun mereka merasa kalau penguatan AUD saat ini sedikit banyak akan menjadi tema pembicaraan, dan kemungkinan RBA ingin melemahkan AUD karena perbaikan ekonomi di Australia belum pantas untuk nilai AUD sekarang ini

    efek yang mungkin terjadi adalah terjadinya profit taking dari aktivitas buy AUD beberapa waktu terakhir, dan bisa mendorong aAUD untuk turun kembali

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